Lyon

Shaping the future of a city like Lyon is a challenge of immense complexity. Urban development is not just about constructing buildings or expanding infrastructure—it is a dynamic process influenced by economic transitions, environmental pressures, technological advancements, and shifting social behaviours. A growing population, evolving mobility patterns, climate resilience, and economic competitiveness all demand long-term strategic thinking.

However, the real difficulty lies in balancing diverse, sometimes conflicting, interests. Decision-makers must anticipate future needs while addressing present-day concerns. Residents seek liveable, affordable, and inclusive spaces, while businesses push for economic growth and innovation. Policymakers grapple with governance structures, funding limitations, and regulatory frameworks. At the same time, unforeseen global crises, demographic shifts, and environmental disruptions add layers of uncertainty to urban planning.

Beyond these structural challenges, there is the question of engagement. How do you bring together planners, local authorities, businesses, and everyday citizens to think collectively about the long-term future? How do you bridge expert knowledge with lived experiences and personal aspirations? The challenge is not only to plan but to create a shared vision—one that accounts for complexity, embraces uncertainty, and encourages active participation in shaping the city of tomorrow.

In the foresight process Prospective 2040, a serious game emerged as a key tool for unlocking imagination and envisioning possible futures. Using scientifically identified drivers, more than 200 themed cards were created, allowing participants to generate unique narratives about the future of the Lyon metropolitan area through a randomized, interactive approach.

As a result, nine distinct future scenarios were developed, shaped by insights from over 300 game sessions. These sessions engaged a diverse range of participants, including urban planners, real estate professionals, cultural actors, students, schoolchildren, and elected representatives. The process combined both analytical and creative methodologies. On one hand, expert research, territorial observatories, and keynote speakers provided a structured analysis of major trends and challenges. On the other, participatory workshops explored themes such as urban well-being, digital transformation, and social cohesion, broadening both the representation of future cities and the methods used to depict them.

The game is now part of middle school curricula, enhancing student engagement. It was also developed with the Lyon Metropolitan Fire Department to create a decision-making tool for emergency services. Additionally, it has been translated into English for use in metropolitan areas across Europe, in collaboration with the METREX network of 57 cities and regions.

Can the future of a city be explored through a game? Prospect’Us has proven that it can.

During the “Prospective 2040” process, UrbaLyon initially defined five possible urban futures using traditional foresight methods. However, when the team introduced Prospect’Us into the process, something unexpected happened. By analysing thousands of game sessions using lexical mining and word recurrence, they uncovered nine distinct and compelling narratives—far richer and more nuanced than the original five.

These nine future scenarios do more than outline what 2040 might look like; they serve as mirrors to the present, highlighting underlying trends that are already shaping the city. Neither utopian nor dystopian, they are deliberately exaggerated to challenge perceptions and spark debate. Each scenario is carefully crafted, complete with a name, a punchline, a visual interpretation, a thematic map, a radar chart, and a detailed narrative.

The impact of these foresight tools has been significant, influencing both policy discussions and strategic planning. They have been used in high-level conversations, including with the Mayor of Lyon and his staff, helping decision-makers visualize possible urban futures and anticipate challenges before they arise. By providing a structured yet imaginative framework for debate, these tools have encouraged more proactive and adaptive policymaking.

But perhaps the most groundbreaking application has emerged in an unexpected field—civil security. Traditionally, urban planners and emergency services operate in separate spheres, each with its own priorities and methodologies. However, through an unprecedented collaboration with the metropolitan fire department, UrbaLyon co-developed a forward-looking tool designed to assess how emergency services might evolve in response to future risks.

This innovative approach enabled firefighters to explore a wide range of challenges, from climate-induced disasters and new technological threats to shifts in urban density and public behaviour in emergencies.

By fostering unexpected collaborations, Prospect’Us has not only reimagined urban planning—it has reshaped how different sectors prepare for the future.