We are all thinking about the future of our cities and how do we actually get to a vision of our future generations thriving. We have learning lessons from the past, we also have to be applying foresight, and that is often challenging.
Often when we start looking to the future, looking at signals in our system in terms of what is changing, there are often things that do emerge. We know that there are these global mega trends: automation, artificial intelligence, the digital revolution among others… How will that play out? What if we now consider how we can actually seize the opportunities that this presents and how we can potentially avoid the pitfalls.
In fact, I think there is a need for a worldwide response to this, putting in place ethics and regulations. For example, we are experiencing the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss, yet we are not doing enough to mitigate them. We are generally failing to meet our carbon emissions targets. Moreover, all of these challenges intersect with other factors, such as an aging population, for example, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather and heat, and so on.
All of these things are interconnected but the common thread through some of them is that, at the core, we are really poor at looking to the long-term and taking decisions. Our systems of politics, of governance, are endemically short-term as we move from one political cycle to the next.
Our politicians are not held to account on how they are acting in the long-term interests of their countries and their citizens, and indeed those yet to be born. A British hip hop artist says: “never has so much been lost by so many because of the inaction of so few”. And he’s absolutely right in lots of this kind of emerging culture of our next generations. They are calling us out as current decision-makers that are disregarding their futures.
How do we deal with these mega challenges that are coming our way in? How do we shift and build countries, cities, and systems, which support the wellbeing of future generations? That is exactly what we’ve been trying to do in Wales.
The Wales We Want
The first thing that we did was hold a national dialogue with the citizens of Wales called “The Wales We Want”. We simply asked: What is the Wales you want to leave behind to your children, your grandchildren, and future generations to come?
And when you engage in that kind of open dialogue with citizens, you gain a much greater sense of what truly matters to them.
The citizens of Wales came up with these seven long-term interconnected wellbeing goals for a prosperous Wales, united in «The Future Generations Act». Surprisingly, one will notice that GDP is missing. This is because we believe prosperity must exist within the planet’s boundaries, and the economy should serve both people and planet – not the other way around. In the past, the opposite has been true, arguably contributing to many of the challenges we face today.
The legislation applies to all main public bodies in Wales, requiring them to maximize their contribution to all seven wellbeing goals. These duties permeate everything they do.
This vision is crucial because we need a clear sense of direction. As the quote says: » You’ve got to think about the big things while doing the small things, so that all of the small things go in the right direction.»
One would think that is entirely sensible yet it is completely revolutionary for a country to have a long-term vision. There is no other country in the world that has set out in law a long-term vision of where it wants to go. A vision that is not going to change from one political cycle to the next. And that provides this framing for everything we do in Wales, all of the small decisions we make.
The second thing that the Future Generations Act does is sets out new ways of working. One, our public bodies must demonstrate how they have considered the long-term impact of their actions. They must work to prevent problems from occurring or getting worse, and integrate their actions across different areas.
In essence, this means they have to act on all of the goals, not pick and choose which ones they consider. That is critically important in terms of connecting different policy areas, requiring all public service agencies in their city or region to collaborate and create a collective long-term wellbeing plan. They must also foster an ongoing sense of involvement and co-production with citizens.
Second, it establishes the role of an independent commissioner, a position I held as the first commissioner for seven years. I often describe it as a role to provide advice and support to public bodies, including the government, on the steps needed to reach the wellbeing goals, while also monitoring and assessing their progress.
I spent an significant amount of time introducing civil servants in one department to those in another, encouraging them to develop projects together in a transversal way. It may seem simple, but that level of integration rarely happens.
Some changes produced as a result of this include: revisions to our education curriculum, Wales becoming the first UK nation to pilot a government-backed basic income and fundamental changes to transportation.
For example, the government planned to spend the entire borrowing capacity on building a 13-mile stretch of motorway to address congestion on one of our major motorways. I intervened, asking the Government to demonstrate how the project aligned with the Future Generations Act, long-term trends and the goals of a prosperous, resilient, healthier and more equal Wales. The project would increase emissions, impact a special scientific site, long-term contribute on the obesity rates, and wouldn´t benefit the 25% of low- income families in the region who don’t own a car.
As a result, the government canceled the road project, as well as 51 of the 55 road building schemes in Wales. Instead, they set up a commission to reconsider the issue through the lens of the Future Generations Act, which recommended investing in active travel, new train stations and new public transit.
When applying a wellbeing lens, public transit and active travel contribute to health and to more connected and cohesive communities. They also address inequity.
I think that in the VUCA world that we are operating in at the moment, our systems have not yet grown up to work in a way that faces and addresses this VUCA reality.
So if a system, if a world is volatile, what do we need? We need a vision to keep coming back to when things change. We need to keep docking back to that North Star if it’s uncertain. We need to connect with people to understand different perspectives. This requires us looking at policy in an integrated way, and because of its ambiguous nature, we need to be agile. We need our systems to not be so bureaucratic that they cannot shift and change. We need the mindsets of our public officials to be as agile.
OUR SYSTEMS
Connecting challenges, where our systems and performance tracking hinder us from joining the dots that are often very linear, is a real challenge. So is the system itself. While there is focused attention on corporations, cities, and governments aiming at net zero, I am not at all convinced they are considering a just transition or addressing nature and biodiversity as part of the process.
It’s the middle ground that can lead us towards a positive outcome, but if we make mistakes, we might solve one problem and create another. As for what’s holding us back, we have many excuses – ranging from organizational infrastructure to the challenges of sharing budgets from an audit perspective, as well as short-term performance measures and annual budgets.
There was no new money allocated for the Future Generations Act, which parked a lot of complaints. However, in the end, this turned out to be a positive thing since it forced us to get creative.
We can begin long-term planning, as 88% of our budget remains unchanged. This involves a shift in mindset and culture, with a role like mine holding others accountable and continually challenging and asking «Why?»
Having a clear, long-term vision provides stability and a common goal for everyone to work towards, ultimately serving as a guiding North Star. We can’t always solve complex intangible challenges definitively, but we can address them to make progress and create a deep impact.
The question is: what works? We are already discussing it. It’s crucial to work with citizens to set a long-term vision. Without citizen involvement, identifying performance indicators will be overlooked. When citizens are involved, they drive real change. Meanwhile, we must remember important dimensions like gender or integration of minorities to ensure equal opportunities for all creating good quality jobs.
So how can we bring about disruptive change? One way is to have a mass job swap, such as placing social workers in the police department, architects in the health department, and creatives in nursing homes. This would result in a diverse range of professionals with different perspectives, including artists on health boards and creatives in primary and mental care. A job swap can lead to cross-fertilization of ideas and help us bring about a positive change.
It is also crucial to involve young people in tackling future challenges. I initiated a program called the Future Generations Leadership Academy, where a diverse group of aspiring leaders explored what it means to lead for future generations. We brought together engineers, DJs, artists, activists, and care leaders to cross-fertilize ideas. Aspiring leaders participated in reverse mentoring with current leaders, who often lack experience with climate anxiety and other pertinent issues. By incorporating the perspectives of future generations into decision-making, we can ensure that our decisions align with their values and concerns.